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с 20 июля 2026 по 12 октября 2026 · минимум 13 400 · максимум 13 700
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QCP Macro Themes, 8 October 2026 US-Iran talks deadlocked on Hormuz sequencing. Washington shifted to pressure—pulling Iran's delegation, adding sanctions—while leaving Qatar's channel open. Hormuz crossings at 3 vessels versus 26 average; SPR down 28% since May. Energy freight surging. West Africa-China crude freight tripled to $27.22/bbl versus $7.37 YTD avg (+319%). Crude exports normalised but refined-product…
QCP Market Colour, 5 October 2026 The macro narrative flipped completely in three weeks: from "hike in October" to "October hike priced out, Fed on hold." September payrolls collapsed to just 29k versus 84k expected; unemployment rose to 4.2%; wage growth slowed to 3.0% year-on-year (lowest since May 2021). The three-month payroll average dropped to 50.7k—roughly one-third the pace a year ago. This dovish labour…
The QCP Digital Assets Outlook: Q4 report is out. What looks like calm is really a stalemate. Rates, CLARITY delays and Middle East risk weigh on price, while ETF demand and risk appetite keep absorbing the pressure. All it takes is one side to tire for price to break out. Our Q4 read: growth slowing without contracting, inflation re-accelerated, Fed tightening again not pausing. BTC base case is range-bound…
QCP Market Colour, 2 October 2026 Bitcoin broke its range to $86,913—highest since September 23—up 14.6% from the September 15 low. But the rally's backdrop is diverging: the 30-year Treasury hit 5.62%, the 10-year briefly 5.29%, and gold had its worst month of the year. Real rates rose 44bp through September while breakevens barely moved. This wasn't an inflation shock—stronger growth expectations, heavy Treasury…
QCP Macro Themes, 1 October 2026 Direct US-Iran contact confirmed but offers rejected. Iran pitched 7-day plan but disagreement over urgency remains. Hormuz at 2 crossings versus 32 average; Bab El Mandeb disrupted. SPR thinnest since 1982. US activity re-accelerating. PMI composite hit 58.4 (strongest since Jul 2021). Input costs near 4-year low. Stronger growth plus sticky costs driving duration demand. 10Y above…
QCP Market Colour, 28 September 2026 Global markets opened Monday under multi-asset pressure as investors reduced risk exposure across all liquid asset classes. The Nasdaq-100 fell from 744.45 to 737.76 in premarket, gold declined from $4,260 to $4,147, and Bitcoin dropped from $84,500 to $82,800—simultaneously. The US Dollar Index also traded lower, defying typical flight-to-safety flows. This pattern reflects…
QCP Macro Themes - 10 September 2026 Fed's September hike locked in the hiking cycle. Six of seven voting speakers hawkish; Kashkari, Musalem, Goolsbee all emphasize inflation is broad and demand-side pressure is real. Policy rate now 3.75%-4.00%. Hike camp firm; restrictive bias confirmed. BOJ followed suit with rate hike from 1.00%, next hike priced for Q4. JPY flips to net long in leveraged funds; GBP longs…
QCP Market Colour, 21 September 2026 Bitcoin is arming up for a breakout. It closed the week above its 50-week moving average, up 29% over the past 35 days, with the tide turning as the traditional war trade loses its grip despite continued U.S.-Iran tensions. The legislative backdrop is doing some of the work. The American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) has cleared the House Financial Services Committee, one step…
QCP Market Colour, 18 September 2026 Bitcoin took two direct hits inside 48 hours and came out bid. The CLARITY Act's 49–50 cloture failure on Tuesday pushed BTC to a monthly low near $75,900, the Fed hiked the following afternoon, and spot recovered to $77,000 before settling around $76,500. The flows are the more interesting part. Spot ETFs bled $450m on the 15th and $296m on the 16th, IBIT shedding $144m of it.…
QCP Market Colour, 14 September 2026 August CPI showed 0.4% headline month-on-month and 0.3% core month-on-month, above the 0.2% consensus. Bitcoin fell to $76,700 on the release before recovering to $77,600, suggesting markets have largely absorbed the 25 basis point hike scenario. The real question is how the Fed frames the move and what it signals about future tightening. Institutional flows diverged: Bitcoin…